First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty. It is very pleasant to see that the owners of classic vehicles not only prepare their equipment for the bitzieciu and the parade, but also. Crafting strategy in an uncertain world, hugh courtney 2001. This study investigates how entrepreneurs and innovators engage the future, and it reflects on how strategic foresight also called futures studies can contribute to innovation and entrepreneurship. Strategic foresight in business management aalto ee. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight. Strategic foresight is a concept i deem synonymous with corporate foresight. This resource contains a method library and playbook for commonly used strategic foresight tools, organised by a guiding framework of five planning phases perspective, opportunity, solution, team, and vision. From theory to practise methods, tools and culture. Frank possesses the unique skillset that is essential in assisting any organization that is seeking to create a foresight division or competency a must have in todays uncertain business environment. This rapid innovation has lead to increased dependency on technology by the united states. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this future might unfold.
Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank engaged in crafting new policy concepts that enable decision makers to prepare for a future in uncertain times. Looking ahead acknowledges uncertainty, and the need to develop the skills to be adaptive, creative and flexible. Whether innovation means finding the next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets, the playbook for strategic foresight and innovation addresses two essential topics. Andheri west, mumbai 400053, india strategic foresight. Scifutures brought together a group of talented futurist authors and gave them a profile of the future developed from allied command transformations broad library of futures work including the strategic foresight analysis, framework for future alliance operations, technology trends survey and long term aspects of requirements. Oct 08, 2019 a botched response is especially likely when the innovation can reconfigure an industrys ecosystem and the strategic interactions among its actors.
Foresight can support3 government policymaking in the following main ways. Strategic foresight analysis 20 report 3 introduction strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways. Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation 9789522655714. Adviser on strategic foresight to the european political strategy centre the idea for this strategic foresight primer was born out of necessity. The opportunity for strategic foresight in philanthropy.
Strategic foresight also requires a combination of analysis and creativity that constitutes, in the excellent term of foresight consultant riel miller, rigor ous imagining. Strategic foresight calls for a systematic analysis of identifying. This playbook targets the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation, and offers a handson guide for modeling, designing, and leading a companys next radical innovation. Note for the phd course strategic foresight in engineering. Anticipating future innovation pathways through large. He focuses on succession management and leadership development in smallmedium businesses and ministries. Yorkovich the tool whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. At stanford university, he has coauthored the playbook for strategic foresight and innovation, a set of practical ideation tools inspired by darpa. In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for.
Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. Strategic foresight october 2019 3 how can foresight add value in policy making. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice note for the phd course strategic foresight in engineering andersen, per dannemand. Entrepreneurship, innovation and strategic foresight. He teaches strategy, strategic foresight, and business model innovation on different mba programs. Provide guidance on putting strategic foresight into practice. Download a free pdf of the playbook no signup needed or buy the print version as one place to start. A brief history of the future, oona strathern 2007. It will take a very large number of experts and smart people to understand the challenges ahead of us and identify potential solutions. Strategy requires the foresight to identify and respond to ripples on the horizon. Whether innovation means finding the next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets, the playbook for strategic foresight and innovation addresses two essential topics how to create a radical idea that becomes a new business, product, or service. Strategic foresight strategic foresight is most commonly used by strategic planning units of national governments.
Harnessing strategic foresight as a springboard for innovation to develop new paradigms and take advantage of what may come. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Strategic foresight is not about better predictions of the future. Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural hea. Welcome future screening strategic corporate foresight. Summary of findings may 2011 summary the strategic foresight initiative sfi is a collaborative effort of the emergency management. Finally, the author describes a practical method for exploring potential futures for your business in order to take robust decisions and develop strategies that help you work towards your preferred future. Define strategic foresight and outline the business imperative for this approach. The strategic foresight analysis does not attempt to predict the future, for the future is neither predictable nor predetermined. Professional foresight books a longer list 2020 foresight. How can business leaders account for all these uncertainties when, by definition, they are unknown. Dokter behati malaikat pdfle paysage urbain pdfmicrocontroller pin details pdf zoxis, 42 rules of product management pdfthe imagination challenge strategic foresight and innovation in the global economy pdf. Nov 18, 2019 strategic foresight supplies these frameworks.
Pdf the concept of strategic foresight has come to dominate contemporary management discourse in recent times with a remarkable upsurge in the number. Foresight examines environments and helps create future scenarios vecchiato and roveda, 2010. While it does contain the tools themselves, the resource also contains extensive guidance on each method, including overall guidance, examples, instructions, insights, tips, and tool. I prefer market foresight as a phrase over an earlier concept of industry foresight. This document builds on the foundation of last years capstone strategic foresight initiative sfi report. At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. There has perhaps never been a time in human history where strategic foresight is more needed.
Pdf playbook for strategic foresight and innovation researchgate. Download your free copy of the playbook by clicking on the book cover above. Jun 16, 2014 strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. As a way of thinking, foresight also encourages innovation, strategic evaluation and the proactive shaping of the future. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further study. However, the analysis and views expressed in this report are of the strategic foresight group only and do not in any way, direct or indirect, reflect any. Introduction to strategic foresight future motions.
Section 7 in order to give innovation managers hints on the limits of scenarios. Strategic foresight and futuring do not predict the future. The european political strategy centre has a mandate to engage in anticipatory governance and identify potential future challenges and opportunities for the european union. Strategic foresight and innovation playbook overview welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation ololy opz tlhuz aukpun ol next market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets. Our vision is to advance the pursuit of highvalue, longrange innovation. Strategic innovation takes the road less traveled it challenges an organization to look beyond its established business boundaries and mental models and to participate in an openminded, creative exploration of the realm of possibilities. Instead, strategic foresight is about better preparedness for different futures that are all possible and plausible. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions.
Developing a toolkit for strategic foresight insead knowledge. Strategic foresight initiative getting urgent about the future summary of findings may 2011 summary the strategic foresight initiative sfi is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. The paper is based on an indepth literature analysis. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. Strategic foresight group anticipating and influencing. It was vision that inspired the invention of the automobile.
Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in. Thinking about the future distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. How entrepreneurs engage the future as opportunity. Welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, who is responsible for innovation. Holder of the chair of strategic foresight at the conservatoire national des arts et. Building strategic agility for a fastermoving world, john kotter 2014. Pdf entrepreneurship, innovation and strategic foresight.
Strategic foresight was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation geniusworks. Bill barton, former center head for american express consumer lending operations, helped me understand this distinction in this way. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. Built as a handson, practical resource, the playbook enables anyone to practice and advance as an innovation leader. Strategic foresight 2015 archive our world is evolving fast into a very complex and uncertain environment where everyone has a role to play in ensuring stability, peace and security. Founded in 2002 to create new forms of intellectual capital, our body of work today encompasses over 50 countries, across four continents. Both his teaching and his research focus on strategyaspractice, technology and innovation management, and strategic foresight in high velocity environments. A playbook for strategic foresight and innovation, published in 20. Features of strategic foresight in reinventing government, osborne and gaebler 1992 noted that one of the important forms of innovation is anticipatory government.
Join the strategic foresight and bring your perspective into natos most. It is about understanding upcoming external changes in relation to internal capabilities and drivers. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model innovation teaching matthew j. Andheri west, mumbai 400053, india strategic foresight group. Towards a maturity model for the future orientation of a firm. Strategic foresight is about combining methods of futures work with those of strategic management. However, the analysis and views expressed in this report are of the strategic foresight group only and do not in any way, direct or indirect, reflect any agreement, endorsement, or approval by. As threats seem to be multiplying as the 30 th anniversary of the cold war ends, paul stockton offers his view on how we can seek to identify issues and potential paths to successfully continuing our military. Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches 221 speak for itself in terms of its purpose. Rene rohrbecks research has been published in leading international journals, and he is the author of corporate foresight. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of. A methodology first practiced by the military, classical applications usually focus on possible future trends and developments horizon scan.
Guidelines for strategic foresight edited by andy hines and peter bishop is the essential handbook for every aspiring analyst and, students of strategic foresight. Developing a toolkit for strategic foresight insead. Issue 4 2015 services futures directions and features, challenges and opportunities. An overview of foresight methodologies maree conway thinking futures introduction foresight is a university human capacity which allows people to think ahead and consider, model, create and respond to, future eventualities foresight international, 2006. Crafting strategy in an uncertain world, hugh courtney 2001 a brief history of the future, oona strathern 2007 a field guide to lies and statistics, daniel levitin 2016 accelerate. Pdf welcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation whether this means finding the next market, describing. You found your way to the research project and completed dissertation future screening a framework for advancing strategic corporate foresight charles sturt university, 20112012 supervisors.
Tamara carleton, william cockayne, antti tahvanainen. Strategic foresight is a growing practice in corporate foresight in large companies. Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for. Features of strategic foresight in reinventing government, osborne and gaebler 1992 noted that one of the important forms of innovation is anticipatory government prevention rather than cure. David sarpong is reader in strategic management at brunel university, london, uk, and associate editor for the journal of strategy and management. Strategic foresight efforts at both the broad contextual and sectorspecific levels can interlink and reinforce each other as part of an ongoing system of integrating futures thinking into policymaking. Foresight refers to processes of anticipation that identify opportunities and threats which may arise in mid to longterm versions of the future. In the crisis response and disaster resilience 2030 report, sfi established a framework for foresight. A fundamental challenge facing business is to formulate robust strategy that adapts to threats or opportunities from innovation. Hicks 2004 argues that the future is unknown, and a single image of the future cannot be predicted. Playbook for strategic and foresight innovation observatory. When you become more foresightful, often the response is to innovate. Strategic foresight group expresses its gratitude to the swiss development cooperation agency sdc for supporting the project.
Describe the push and pull of the future, and how leveraging both ends of the foresight spectrum trends and aspirations is critical. Historically, it was sufficient to scan an industry landscape, monitor the behaviour of rivals and track metrics such as market share. Today, enterprises primarily use foresight methods as. The aim of the strategic foresight analysis report is to identify trends that will shape the future strategic context and derive implications for the alliance out to 2035 and beyond. Guido reger is full professor for entrepreneurship and innovation management at the university of potsdam, germany. A field guide to lies and statistics, daniel levitin 2016 accelerate. This is simply because thinking across current industry boundaries is today an important source of innovation. As a social innovation exchange, six sees a natural link between strategic foresight and social innovation. As we noted, in a vuca world accurate prediction is an illusion. A methodology first practiced by the military, classical applications usually focus on possible future trends and developments horizon scan of one crucial driver, such as the future of technological. Foresight as a strategic longterm planning tool for. And he knows how to meet every client right where they are.
Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice. It is a glance at our current research on strategic foresight, which will be continued in the future. Planning considers a multitude of factors in the present environment, measures them and then extrapolates the data into the future. Strategic foresight, leadership, and the future of rural. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. I like the whole playbook idea because it addresses reallife activities and development. Issue 6 2012 innovation in horizon scanning for the social sector.
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